Changes or additions to this section of the FAQ should be submitted to: jacobs@xmission.com.
In order to have an advantage over the house, you must find a machine with a progressive jackpot that is larger than about 1750 maximum bets. ($8750 for $1 machines, $2200 for $.25 machines, $440 for $.05 machines). This level only makes the game even with the house. The jackpot must be higher than this in order to gain an advantage. The player's edge increases by about 1% for each addition of 350 maximum bets into the progressive jackpot.
In order to have a 2% edge, the jackpot must be about 2500 max. bets. ($12,500 for $1 machines, $3125 for $.25 machines, $625 for $.05 machines).
The main difficulty with playing video poker is that it takes an average of 60 hours of rapid play to hit a royal flush, and it takes a _huge_ bankroll to survive long enough to win. During this time, the casino enjoys an advantage of approximately 5%. Straight flushes can be expected about once every 6 hours on average, but these contribute only about 0.5% to the player's return. 4-of-kind hands occur only about once per hour, and these hands account for about 5% of the player's return.
What this all means to the video poker player is that you will be playing with about a 10% disadvantage while waiting for an occasional 'boost' from a 4-of-kind or straight flush. On average, it will take a bankroll about as large as the progressive jackpot to survive long enough to hit the royal flush (and this assumes that the jackpot is large enough to give the player a reasonable edge over the house).
The following table shows the relative frequency of each hand, and the resultant effect on the expected return, assuming the given strategy is used. The table shows that you can expect to get nothing back about 55% of the time, and hit either a high pair, two pair, or three of a kind another 41% of the time. Hands of higher value occur only about 3.6% of the time. This means that the house has a whopping 31% edge most of the time.
return % rate frequency variance
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5.308 -> 0.00306 -> 1/32680 91.90 --=<ROYAL FLUSH!!!>=--
0.492 -> 0.00984 -> 1/10163 0.246 STRAIGHT FLUSH!!!!
5.878 -> 0.235 -> 1/425 1.469 FOUR OF A KIND!!!
9.183 -> 1.148 -> 1/87 0.735 FULL HOUSE!!
5.584 -> 1.117 -> 1/89.5 0.293 FLUSH!
4.512 -> 1.128 -> 1/88.7 0.180 STRAIGHT!
22.227 -> 7.409 -> 1/13.5 0.667 THREE OF A KIND
25.780 -> 12.890 -> 1/7.76 0.516 TWO PAIR
21.053 -> 21.053 -> 1/4.75 0.211 HIGH PAIR
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44.993% 4.317 + royal
high pair 1 for 1
two pair 2 for 1
3 kind 3 for 1
straight 4 for 1
flush 5 for 1
full house 8 for 1
4 kind 25 for 1
str flush 50 for 1
royal flush 2500 for 1 (expected return 102%)
Simplified strategy (find first hand that matches, keep only needed cards). Best draws are listed in order of decreasing expected value.
Expected value of each draw is shown, in units of one max. bet. Numbers in () vary, depending on progressive jackpot (value shown is for jackpot of 2500 max. bets).
drawing value hand
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0 (2500) royal flush
1 ( 54) 4/royal (break up KQJT9 str-flush)
[1]
0 50 straight flush
0 25 4 kind
0 8 full house
0 5 flush
2 4.24 3 kind
0 4 straight
1 3.4 4/str-flush
2 ( 2.9) 3/royal (break up pairs)
[2,3]
1 2.51 two pair
3 1.53 high pair
1 1.0 4/flush
1 0.87 KQJT 4/straight
3 0.814 low pair
1 0.809 QJT9 4/straight (outside, two high cards)
1 0.745 JT98 4/straight (outside, one high card)
2 0.699 QJ9 3/str-flush
2 0.697 JT9 3/str-flush
3 ( 0.69) 2/royal (both non-tens)
1 0.681 4/straight (outside, no high cards)
2 0.599 3/str-flush (one high card, spread 4)
2 0.597 3/str-flush (spread 3)
3 ( 0.59) 2/royal (10 + one high card)
1 0.596 AKQJ straight (4 high cards)
1 0.532 AKQT/AKJT/AQJT/KQJ9 straight (3 high cards)
2 0.515 KQJ unsuited
3 0.509 QJ unsuited
2 0.502 3/str-flush (one high card, spread 5)
2 0.500 3/str-flush (none high cards, spread 4)
3 0.48 3 unsuited high cards (keep lowest two)
3 0.48 2 unsuited high cards
4 ( 0.48) high card
2 0.402 3/str-flush (none high cards, spread 5)
5 0.360 garbage (draw 5 new cards)
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[1] Keep KQJT9 straight flush if progressive jackpot is below 2282 bets.
[2] Keep two high pair if progressive jackpot is below 2100 bets.
[3] Keep high pair plus paired 10's if progressive is below 2175 bets.
The following draws should NOT be taken, since drawing 5 new
cards gives a greater expected gain.
1 0.340 4/straight (inside, no high cards) --> keep none
2 0.305 3/flush (no high cards) --> keep none
2 0.275 3/straight (no high cards) --> keep none