Last week I talked about short-term or session bankroll. Now I turn to the subject of estimating your long-term bankroll needs if you want to play VP indefinitely.
When I wrote Frugal 1, I talked about the need for at least a 3-royal long-term bankroll ($3,000 for the quarter player), but mentioned that I liked a 5-royal cushion better, because I don't like to be near the bottom of the barrel. By the time I wrote Frugal 2, I had more experience in playing different kinds of games. I found I needed to explain that when I talked about the 3-royal bankroll, I was talking about playing full-pay Deuces Wild with the heavy use of promotions and slot club benefits that made our EV very high, often as much as 102% or better. Back then we really scrambled and also did a lot of couponing to supplement our VP play. But when we changed to a more volatile game, like Double Bonus, or did plays that didn't have such a high EV, we found the 3-royal, or even the 5-royal, bankroll guide needed to be raised.
Today, with the gradual decrease of high-EV 100%-plus games, Brad and I require a much bigger bankroll, because we're playing with a much lower total-play EV than we were several years ago. Often playing with only a .5% advantage, I wouldn't feel comfortable with much less than an 8-times-royal bankroll. And if we're counting in tournament equity, which is very long term, we can't feel secure with much less than a 10-times-the-royal bankroll and we usually have even more that that. We really like to feel secure! And this is still based on a lot of scrambling to squeeze every penny of EV out of every coupon, bounce-back, and cashback promotion we can find.
We never count comps in our EV, although you could if you value them realistically and adjust the bankroll requirement upward by adding the actual amount the comps save you. The food comps we use reduce our grocery bill; the show, cruise, movie, and party comps reduce our spending on other entertainment options; the stuff the casino gives us reduces our gift spending on children, grandchildren, and friends. If you do count comps, I suggest you low-ball the actual worth figure. If you get a $1,200 shopping spree in overpriced stores where you buy stuff you really don't need or even want and have to give away most of it, I count that worth about one-third for us -- about $400.
For most of you who play just barely over 100%, I don't think there's a big enough bankroll for you to ever be very secure that you'll reach long-term winning. I see a big danger for many here. You think, for example, that if you play fairly accurate 10/7 Double Bonus (with a theoretical EV of 100.17%), you're an advantage player and thus are destined to win long term. The bottom line here is that in general, the higher the EV you play, the smaller the long-term bankroll you need. And the lower your advantage, the bigger the bankroll must be. I don't mean to be harsh -- I just hate for people to be crushed when they go broke before they reach the winning long term, simply because they didn't realistically face the huge bankroll they need to play with a very low edge.
Unless you have a good basic-play advantage (game return plus extras) every time you play in a casino, play very accurately, and chase promotions and extra benefits tirelessly, you don't have a hope of being a long-term winner. And if you play at 100%-plus just 'most of the time,' just 'kind of sort of' study the strategies, jump from game to game in one session, and can't be bothered to run around using coupons or doing promotions, then I can predict you will be a long-term loser.
You're really just a recreational casino player and that's perfectly all right, if you're happy to lose only what you can afford and count it as entertainment. And if you do even some of the things that a good advantage player does, you'll lose less and that's always a good thing.
Being a long-term winning VP player is very hard work -- it always has been -- and it's getting harder every day. Yes, it's still possible. Brad and I are still doing it and I know other people who are doing it. But it takes a lot more than wishful thinking. Advantage players out there are going broke all the time, not because they aren't skilled, but because they're playing above their bankroll!
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