Theo

More Frugal Gambling Excerpt

Atlantic City Theo


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Making 'Theo' Your Friend by Jean Scott

Although many people wrongly think they cannot get comps because they aren't high rollers, others go to the other extreme and think, also wrongly, that if they lose $100, the casino will give them $100 in comps. Casino comps are a rebate of part of player losses, the percentage varying from 10% to 40%, depending primarily on the amount of competition a casino faces.

Most casinos now use a mathematical formula to calculate how much in comps a player should receive. They take the amount of money risked multiplied by the casinos edge multiplied by the comp percentage.

Let's illustrate this with a $25-a-hand blackjack player who plays 50 hands per hour for four hours. This player puts $5,000 into action ($25 x 50 x 4). The casino figures it has a 2% edge overall in blackjack, so $5,000 x .02 = $100, which is the expected casino win. Since this casino is on the Strip and faces stiff competition, it has a 40% comp rebate. So .4 x $100 = $40, the amount the player is entitled to in comps.

This formula works the same way for slot and video poker players, but all machines are not created equal and savvy machine players need to understand the meaning of the word 'theoretical' usually called theo, the god worshipped by casino executives.

When your host tells you your comps are based on the theo of the slot or video poker machine you're playing, she means that her comp guidelines are based on a percentage of the amount the casino will theoretically win from all the gamblers who play that game. Many players win in their sessions, many more lose in their sessions, but adding up all the results, the casino will win a certain percentage of the coin-in. That percentage is the casino's theo. (From the opposite point of view, it's the theoretical loss of the player.) Of course, this differs from any one player's actual loss for any session or trip.

How does a casino get the theo for each of the thousands of machines on the casino floor? Is there a different percentage for each machine based on the actual hold?

It's not really broken down into that many pieces. There may be one average figure for all machines. Or a casino may have one figure for reel slots and another (always lower) for video poker. Even casinos with complex computer systems commonly use just 10-15 different theo percentages within which each machine is classified. Most casinos use the figures from the manufacturers to set the theo on VP machines, which is usually around 2% lower than if everyone played computer-perfect strategy.

In a perfect world, a player would know the theo of the machine he's feeding. He would also know the percentage of the theo that the casino is giving back in comps. Then he could figure how many dollars in comps he's earned. For example, $20,000 coin-in x a theo of 2% = $400 x a 25% kickback rate = $100 in comps earned. Simple, isn't it?

But the casino world isn't simple and the comp system rarely employs a simple formula. Maybe the bean counters have decided to base comps on an either-or system, either the larger of 25% of your theoretical loss or 10% of your actual loss. Or they may factor in denomination or time played, or use any of the other factors we've talked about in the last few chapters. Sometimes you can get the formula from your host, but it's mostly a deep dark secret.

Whether you can figure out the system or not, it always pays to choose a game where skill is a factor, then study to gain that skill. To quote Jeffrey Compton, 'just because the casino computer says that, on average, you should be losing 3% of every dollar you play doesn't mean that you have to make the prediction come true.' If you're playing the correct strategy on a good video poker machine, you will, over the long term, most likely lose less than the average player does. And if comps are based on the theo, you have a chance to get as much as those who lose much more. In short, theo can be your friend.


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Atlantic City Theo

(based on anecdotal evidence)

The industry norm is for casinos to return 20%-30% of their theoretical win on your play in the form of rooms, food, cashback, and promotions.

For 99%+ ER games, casinos will rarely accord play anything stronger than 6% (a 4% max is more prevalent). At many, a game such as 9/6 Jacks will see a 2%-3% 'theo' assigned -- I'd expect Borgata is no more than 2%.

If you can believe it, at one time Sands assigned a 1% theo to the game, with relatively negligible food comps (hosts could, and often did, provide much stronger discretionary comps -- including RFB on decent $1 play).

Your actual theo is generally unavailable from the slot desk, but many hosts will disclose it for a given trip.

For $10K of play, you might see a theo of $200-$400. That would suggest a comp rate of no more than $40-$120 (.4%-1.2%). Typically (just winging some numbers, you can adjust based upon your particular experience) you might see a mix of comp components that looks something like .3% food, .3% cb, .5% room and .1% promos ($30/$30/$50/$10). Stronger values might be available during some promotions, such as 'x' RC or cb ones or free/discounted buffets.

I'm playing a little fast and loose with these numbers -- actual experience at any given casino will vary. But they should give you a fair indication whether your particular experience is reasonable and/or competitive with other AC casinos.


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