American military personnel may soon
be deployed to the South Asia region, primarily to
Pakistan and eventually to Afghanistan.
This is an extremely complex and multifaceted region.
To acquire sufficient background to perform
there effectively takes years of study. Our troops
do not have that much time. Few
Americans have studied this region and it is rarely
touched-upon in the media, which is now
engaged in a frantic game of catch-up. Much of the
information being bandied about is simplistic
and some is incorrect. If personnel assigned to
the region rely on the media to acquire
background, it could do them more harm than good.
This is not the time for detailed
presentations on the complexities of South Asian Islam
or the tribal culture of Afghanistan,
or the history of the Northwest Frontier. Usable
information is required urgently, and
must be presented in an easily digestible fashion. That
is the intent of this paper.
Precisely because the region is so
complex and the stakes so high, our policymakers must
not rush into ill-advised policies.
They must cultivate patience, and take the time to lay the
groundwork and cultivate the individuals,
tribes, and ethnic groups that can, if we take the
right steps, become valuable allies to
achieve common goals. If the U.S. pursues a thoughtful
and well thought out policy, it could
not only succeed in destroying Usama bin Ladin and his
network, it could depose the Taliban,
which has actively supported bin Ladin and his terrorist
agenda, and help the Afghans institute
a moderate government that reflects the will of the
Afghan people and which will be willing
to work with the International community to rebuild
Afghanistan, and participate in a more
stable South Asian region.
Loyalty to bin Ladin
First and foremost, our government should
not rush to judgment regarding the Afghan and
Pakistani people and their loyalties.
The media in the coming days will present dramatic
footage of bearded demonstrators professing
undying loyalty to Osama bin Ladin and Taliban
leader Mullah Muhammad Omar. The
demonstrators will also express their undying hatred for the
United States and its allies, and swear
to lay down their lives to defend bin Ladin and "Islam".
The media will show this footage because
it is dramatic, but it will not be a reliable basis
upon which to judge the loyalties and
intentions of the people of the region.
Experience and observation have demonstrated
that in Pakistan, the vast majority of the
population is not sympathetic to bin Ladin.
Few among those that profess admiration for bin
Ladin are ready to kill or die for him.
For the past several years bin Ladin has issued edicts
declaring a jihad (holy war) on the United
States. He has urged all Muslims in Pakistan and
Afghanistan to attack and kill Americans,
yet there have only been a handful of such attacks.
Pakistan's religious parties have long
relied on demonstrations and "street muscle" to coerce
and intimidate their opponents.
The reason they do so, is because they do not enjoy popular
support. The extremist parties in
Pakistan have never carried more that 4% of the popular vote
in any election.
Likewise, in Afghanistan, there is
no evidence to indicate that bin Ladin or Mullah Omar
enjoy widespread popular support.
Most indications are to the contrary. There are a number of
reasons for this.
a) Bin Ladin and
his patron Mullah Omar practice and propagate an extremist variant of
Wahhabi Islam that is popular in Saudi
Arabia. This form of Islam is all but unknown in
Afghanistan. Afghan Islam has traditionally
been moderate and incorporates many folk beliefs
and customs, which are pre-Islamic in
origin. Bin Ladin and his followers hold traditional
Afghan Islam in contempt and have repeatedly
insulted local religious sympathies.
b) Mullah Omar,
with the active support and encouragement of bin Ladin, has instituted
harsh puritanical measures in Afghanistan.
He has banned movies, music, television, and the
celebration of much beloved national festivals
and holidays. He has strictly separated the
sexes and prevented women from participating
in national life. He has instituted harsh
punishments such as amputation, burying
people alive, and stoning them to death. He has created
a religious secret police that forces
Afghans to pray at Mosques and observe a strict dress
code. The average Afghan has found
these measures to be oppressive.
c) Mullah Omar
has granted bin Ladin and his largely Arab followers special privileges
within Pakistan. They have been
allowed to acquire large tracts of choice real estate and some
have built palatial homes. This
is highly resented in a society suffering under endemic
poverty. Many of Osama's followers,
convinced of their religious and ethnic superiority, have
routinely abused Afghans. Mullah
Omar will not allow the Arabs to face justice, regardless of
crimes they commit in Afghanistan.
For example, several Arabs accused of raping local women,
were never brought to justice. Many
Afghans resent the presence of these foreigners in their
midst. Some have decided to mete
out punishment on their own. Irate Afghans have in several
instances murdered Arabs guilty of crimes.
.
In addition to their support for bin Ladin,
demographics, and the Taliban's behavior have
undercut their popularity within Afghanistan.
Pakistan is a heterogeneous society, populated by
a number of large ethnic and religious
groups with their own languages and cultures. The
Taliban originated within the Pathan ethnic
group. The Pathans are the largest group within
Afghanistan. Large numbers of Pathans
also live in Pakistan, where they are the dominant group
within the North West Frontier Province
(NWFP) immediately bordering Afghanistan. The Pathans
are a tribal society. Each tribe
has its own leadership and culture. Some are based in
Afghanistan and some in Pakistan.
The Taliban has made little or no effort
to expand beyond its narrow ethnic base. As a result,
they have alienated the other ethnic groups
in the county, such as the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Shia
Muslims (called Hazaras). These
ethnic groups have largely supported the Northern Alliance, in
its civil war against the Taliban.
The response of the Taliban has been to decimate villages
inhabited by these minorities. Taliban
troops have routinely raped the women, killed civilian
men women and children, murdered prisoners
after they have surrendered, tortured members of
these ethnic groups, and expropriated
their property.
Questionable Military Capability
As the war has dragged on, the Taliban
has become more and more ruthless and discipline among
the Taliban troops has continued to deteriorate.
Many Taliban commanders are now little more
than warlords, whose loyalty to the Taliban
is tenuous at best. The Taliban has not been
successful in the civil war because of
the fighting prowess of its troops. The Taliban captured
large swathes of Afghan territory by bribing
local commanders with cash payments and playing
upon the war-weariness of the Afghan population.
Tired of the depredations of the numerous
Afghan warlords, the population initially
welcomed the Taliban, which promised to end the
fighting, stop endemic banditry, disarm
the population, and restore law and order. The
population's initial enthusiasm has largely
faded away, as the Taliban failed to restore social
services or effective government, and
instead instituted a series of oppressive religious
edicts. When drought arrived to
plague the Afghan people, the Taliban was insensitive to their
plight and did little to relieve the suffering.
Instead, the Taliban continued to cling to bin
Ladin, even though this has led to international
isolation and inhibited the arrival of drought
relief.
As the Taliban acquired power, their cash
reserves have dried-up. Corruption has vastly
increased, and large amounts of money
are now diverted into the pockets of Taliban commanders.
As initial popular support diminished,
the willingness of men to join the Taliban army has all
but disappeared. The Taliban army
has a small cadre of true believers willing to die for the
cause. The remainder of the army
consists of conscripts. The Taliban has replenished its ranks
by entering Afghan villages and forcing
men into the army at gunpoint. These conscript troops
with no morale or training are incapable
of performing effectively on the battlefield. As a
result, the Taliban uses them for human
wave attacks through minefields against fortified
positions. They endure heavy casualties
and many desert at the earliest opportunity. The
Taliban army was never a disciplined or
well-trained force and protracted fighting with heavy
casualties and a high desertion rate,
has vastly reduced the numbers of veterans with combat
experience in its ranks. In addition,
valuable commanders have defected to the Northern
Alliance as Taliban popularity evaporated.
Discipline and morale never very high, continue to
deteriorate.
The Northern Alliance
By contrast the numerically smaller forces
of the Northern Alliance are well disciplined.
Northern Alliance troops are volunteers
rather than conscripts, and are well trained and highly
motivated. Whenever the two armies
have fought, Northern Alliance forces have consistently
performed better than their Taliban opponents.
The Northern Alliance leadership maintains that
their defeats on the battlefield are largely
the result of the disparity in arms and equipment
and the often- decisive role played by
Arab and other "volunteers" in support of the largely
ineffective Taliban armed forces.
The Northern Alliance argues that if provided with steady and
reliable supplies of quality weapons and
ammunition, they can win victories against the Taliban.
In the press it is often stated that the
Taliban control 90% of Afghanistan. This statement is
extremely misleading. Taliban control
of the countryside is tenuous at best. Since the Taliban
does not enjoy the support of the ethnic
minorities, and troops from these areas cannot be
relied upon, Pathan forces must physically
occupy these regions. The Pathan troops are foreign
occupiers in these areas where they do
not speak the local language. Experience has
demonstrated that whenever the Northern
Alliance reoccupies these areas, the local population
comes out in support of the Alliance.
The Northern Alliance argues that if they could establish
a permanent presence in the minority areas
of Afghanistan, they could recruit thousands of new
soldiers. They emphasize that they
will need supplies of arms and ammunition with which to
supply these new recruits as their army
advances.
Within the Pathan areas of Afghanistan,
the Taliban has alienated a number of key tribes.
Several have revolted against the Taliban
in recent years. These revolts have been forcibly
suppressed by the Taliban army, which
has been forced to divert troops from its fight with the
Northern Alliance. Should the Taliban
armed forces be thinly stretched, fighting a multi-front
war against the Northern Alliance, Pakistan,
and perhaps troops of an anti-Taliban/Usama
coalition, ethnic minorities and restive
Pathan tribes are likely to take advantage of the
situation to rise in revolt and break
free of Taliban rule, especially if they are guaranteed
financial assistance and military supplies
from the coalition.
While not all of the assertions of the
Northern Alliance can be taken at face value, it appears
to be an empirical fact that man for man
Northern Alliance troops are better soldiers than those
in the Taliban army. They are fighting
with their backs against the wall. They have seen that
when the Taliban conquers a territory,
it ravages the villages of its opponents and engages in
wholesale slaughter. The Northern
Alliance troops are fighting for their survival and to
protect their homes and families.
They have a reason to fight, and are therefore motivated and
have reasonably high morale.
The Taliban forces, by contrast,
have lost sight of what they are fighting for. The Taliban
regime is increasingly unpopular.
It has tried to play upon the religious sentiments of the
Afghan people by portraying the Northern
Alliance as atheist stooges of the Russians and
Indians, who admittedly provide support
to the Alliance. However, it is plain to everyone in
Afghanistan that the members of the Alliance
practice Islam, and are largely free of Arabic
influence and have genuine nationalist
credentials. While it remains to be seen whether the
Northern Alliance could play a pivotal
role in the struggle against bin Ladin and the Taliban,
there are strong reasons to extend them
financial support and military aid. The Alliance, it
must be noted, has not asked for foreign
troops, or training.
With an unreliable army, the Taliban must
increasingly rely upon the Arab fighters supplied by
Usama bin Ladin. In some battles
these have been the only troops who have stood their ground or
met their military objectives. Mullah
Omar must now depend of these troops to maintain him in
power and prevent the military situation
from deteriorating. This is one reason why Mullah Omar
will not meet Western demands that he
hand over bin Ladin to face international justice.
The Taliban - Regional Pariah
The Taliban has consciously alienated all
of its neighbors and encouraged their active enmity.
The Afghan Tajiks share a common ethnic
identity and language with the inhabitants of Tajikistan
directly northeast of Afghanistan.
Afghan Uzbeks are kinsmen to the inhabitants of Uzbekistan,
which borders Afghanistan to the North.
The Hazaras, who reside in central Afghanistan, share a
common religion with Iran, directly Southeast
of Afghanistan. The Taliban has angered
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Iran by committing
atrocities against Afghanistan's Uzbek, Tajik,
and Hazara minorities.
The Taliban further angered Iran when Taliban
troops captured the city of Mazar I Sharif. At
that time they entered the premises of
the Iranian Consulate and murdered the diplomats there.
Iran subsequently placed its armed forces
on alert and threatened to go to war with Afghanistan.
The issue was diffused only when Taliban
leaders made efforts to reassure the Iranians that this
was an isolated incident.
In addition, the Taliban has encouraged
and supported heroin dealers, couriers and processors
within Afghanistan. Much of
the heroin is transported through and sold in Iran. The
government of Iran has dispatched paramilitary
police to deal with the heavily armed Afghan drug
traffickers. Several hundred Iranian
policemen have died in clashes with the heavily armed
Afghans, some of whom are Taliban troops
escorting drug caravans into Iran.
Usama bin Ladin's al Qaeda group is not
the only Islamic militant/terrorist group, which has
found sanctuary within Afghanistan.
Mullah Omar has invited Islamic terrorists from around the
world to his country. These include
Chinese Muslims from Sinking Province. These Chinese
Muslims receive training in the use of
firearms and explosives in Afghanistan and are then
re-infiltrated into China, where they
have set off a number of bombs in public places. Despite
repeated reassurances from the Taliban
to the Chinese, this activity has continued unabated.
Likewise, the Taliban is the only group
(not government) to "recognize" the breakaway
"government" of Chechnya, which has set
up a number of "consulates" in Afghanistan. Chechen
guerrillas routinely come to Pakistan
for training, rest and refitting, and the Taliban has sent
a number of its fighters to Chechnya to
provide fraternal assistance. This has earned the
Taliban the undying enmity of the Russian
government.
Islamic militants from the former Soviet
republics to the North of Afghanistan (Turkmenistan,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyszstan)
have found a friend, ally and sanctuary in Afghanistan.
The Taliban regime has repeatedly stated
that it hopes to see Islamic movements topple the
secular regimes in these states and spread
"pure" Islamic government throughout the area. The
governments of these republics would be
delighted to see the Taliban replaced by a moderate
regime that renounces support for extremist
Islamic movements.
The Taliban have also actively supported
terrorist groups active in India. Its fighters
routinely participate in the fighting
in Kashmir. India has accused these Afghan fighters of
committing numerous atrocities against
Indian citizens in the Kashmir conflict. The Taliban
actively supported the hi-jackers who
several years ago commandeered an Indian commercial
aircraft to Afghanistan. An Indian
national was murdered in the hijacking, and the Indian
government was forced to release a number
of jailed Kashmiri militants to gain release of its
citizens and the aircraft. After
the hijackers left the airplane, they successfully disappeared
into Afghanistan.
The Taliban's Sole Supporter
Pakistan was the only country in the region
that recognized the Taliban as a government and
provided them with support. Prior
to the latest terrorist attack against the U.S., there were
growing signs that Pakistan was growing
frustrated with its Afghan policy and was looking for a
way out. For years theorists within
Pakistan argued that Pakistani support for the Taliban
would result in a compliant client state
and provide Pakistan with "strategic depth" in its
lopsided conflict with India. Although
the Taliban was willing to accept Pakistani assistance,
it proved largely uncooperative.
Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Taliban to distance itself
from Islamic extremism and Usama bin Ladin,
but its advice was ignored. Earlier this year the
Taliban insisted on destroying the famous
Bamiyan Buddhas despite the repeated and sincere
implorations of Pakistan. Many Pakistanis
were outraged by this act, which they viewed as
primitive and uncivilized, an insult to
Pakistan, and a willful misinterpretation of Islam.
Pakistan's military leader, General Mussharaf
has long entertained doubts about Pakistan's
Afghan policy, which he inherited from
previous governments. He stated repeatedly that he was
as frustrated with the Taliban and their
illogical actions as the rest of the world, but that
Pakistan had little alternative but to
pursue the policy in place. He has stated that since
Pakistan's sizeable Pathan minority shares
ethnic ties with Afghan Pathans, it is natural for
Pakistan to remain "engaged" with Afghanistan
regardless of the particular government in power.
It now appears that the repulsive nature
of the recent terrorist attack upon the United States
and the high civilian death count may
have caused Musharraf to decide to wash his hands of the
Taliban once and for all. Pakistan
is very concerned about its international reputation. It
does not want to be considered an Islamic
fundamentalist state in the Taliban mold. It wants to
be seen as an Islamic moderate state,
which can do business with the rest of the world.
Musharraf and the Pakistani leadership
are deeply aware of the impact of the many U.S. sanctions
on the Pakistani economy and military.
Pakistan's armed forces have been denied
access to American military equipment, technology and
training by the sanctions. It has
not been able to find a reliable alternative source. As a
result, the Pakistani military has deteriorated
and the military balance vis a vis India
continues to swing in India's favor.
At one time the Pakistani military could have effectively
conducted a conventional war against India.
This is no longer the case. Most analysts now
agree that Pakistan would be quickly defeated
in a conventional conflict. This has caused
Pakistan's military leadership to increasingly
rely on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. They would
prefer to restore Pakistan's military
through renewed access to American equipment, and
training.
Likewise, the Pakistani economy, already
in a nosedive, has been reeling under the impact of
sanctions. Pakistan is heavily indebted
and is barely able to maintain the interest payments on
its foreign debt, much less reduce the
principal. Pakistan would like to see its foreign
creditors write off its debt and extend
new low interest or no interest loans, as well as
foreign aid and investment. As long
as Pakistan is associated with the Taliban and Islamic
extremism, this will not happen.
In his address of September 19, Musharraf said that Pakistan
must act in its own best interest.
He told the Pakistani people that Pakistan must, for its own
survival, be on the right side in this
conflict. Pakistan will expect a considerable return for
its support of the coalition.
The Pakistani military is a product of
British colonialism. It is highly traditional and
treasures its British heritage.
English is the language of business of the Pakistani officer
class. All Pakistani officers must
be fluent in the language. The military is proud to be a
secular institution and has little sympathy
for Islamic extremism. Pakistan's current military
regime, although embarrassed by the activities
of Pakistan's fundamentalist parties and groups
and their support for Islamic terrorism,
has been reluctant to move against them. Musharraf's
government has claimed that its first
priority was to restore the economy and democratic
government. It did not want to be
diverted by what could prove to be a violent struggle against
homegrown extremists. Like all militaries,
the Pakistani military also did not want to be
placed in a position where it would have
to engage in violent conflict with its own people. The
Pakistani military is venerated in Pakistan.
Despite its repeated interference in government
and widespread corruption, it is popularly
viewed as the defender of the nation.
The military did not want to stain its
image by firing on violent pro-Taliban/Usama
demonstrators. It now appears that
the latest outrage attributed to Islamic terrorists may have
pushed the military off of the fence.
Since the terrorist attack, Musharraf has met with
Pakistan's religious and opinion leaders
and has tried to convince them that the country can no
longer be linked to Islamic terrorism
and must join the anti-Usama coalition. He has now
addressed the Pakistani nation and presented
his arguments in a gentle and forthright fashion.
This is, however, a fist within a velvet
glove. Should the fundamentalists continue to express
support for terrorism and bin Ladin, Musharraf's
patience is likely to wear thin, and he could
decide to move forcefully against them.
There is little to indicate that the people
of Pakistan would actively oppose such a move. Well
over 95% of the Pakistani people are not
Islamic fundamentalists. Almost everyone in Pakistan
was appalled by the recent terrorism and
wants to disassociate themselves from it. Should the
fundamentalists ignore repeated warnings
to curtail their activities, they may find themselves
facing the full power of the Pakistan
state and military. There is nothing to indicate that the
Pakistani military and police would refuse
to carry out a crackdown if ordered by Musharraf to
do so. He retains the loyalty of
the Army, his power base. The corps commanders owe their
position to Musharraf and are personally
loyal to him. In the Pakistani tradition faujis
(enlisted men) and officers follow their
corps commanders and do not plot against the chain of
command.
Pakistan is the Taliban's military lifeline.
The fuel consumed by Taliban planes, helicopters
and vehicles must come through Pakistan.
Taliban troops exercise no fire control. They
routinely fire their weapons on full automatic,
whether there is a visible target or not, often
without aiming. As a result, they
consume vast amounts of ammunition, which can only be
supplied through Pakistan. Without
access to spare parts and fuel, the Taliban's mechanized
forces and Air Force would quickly deteriorate
and they would be hard-pressed to keep
significant numbers of planes, helicopters,
tanks, trucks, jeeps, and communications gear up and
running over an extended period.
Likewise, the troops on the battlefront would run out of
ammunition without access to resupply.
Every country surrounding Afghanistan is hostile and the
Taliban has been unable to establish alternative
supply lines.
Likely Battlefield Performance
The type of fighting that characterizes
the Afghan civil war is relatively primitive. The
combatants do not possess modern weapons,
nor do they use modern tactics. Despite the large
expenditure in ammunition by both sides,
casualties are relatively few, since most troops are
not shooting at specific targets.
Artillery has been decisive in the set piece battles.
Undisciplined Afghan troops have little
stomach for artillery barrages and have retreated rather
than stand firm when faced with artillery.
The Taliban is the only faction with an Air Force
with a combat capability. The Taliban
air force does not possess the capability to conduct
precision bombing. Taliban pilots
tend to drop their bombs in the general area of the target
and are unconcerned whether they score
a hit or not, as they do not like to remain over the
battlefield where they are exposed to
anti-aircraft fire.
The Taliban armed forces have not been
exposed to modern intense artillery barrages and bombing
attacks. Nor have they faced modern,
well-trained, and well-disciplined troops. There is no
indication that they could present a credible
threat to the armed forces of Pakistan, which are
well trained and capable. Much has
been made in the media of the advantage the terrain presents
to the Taliban. It should be remembered,
however, that both the Pakistani armed forces and the
Northern Alliance forces have long operated
and fought in the same terrain with greater
effectiveness than the Taliban.
The terrain also will only be a significant
factor if the coalition intends to physically invade
and occupy Afghan territory. If
our war-aims are limited to unseating the Taliban, and
destroying al-Qaeda, it remains to be
seen how these could be furthered by occupying
Afghanistan. It is not clear whether
American or other Western forces will ever fight against
the Taliban Army. A number of things
could preclude such a fight. The Taliban army could
melt-away before the conflict. The
Taliban could stumble into military conflict against
Pakistan and be defeated. The Northern
Alliance with coalition support, could wear down the
Taliban armed forces. Commando style
raids by western forces with support from Pakistan and
friendly Afghans could also wear down
the Taliban in a protracted conflict. The Pathan tribes
or the Taliban army itself could overthrow
the Taliban government and sue for peace.
Caution and Deliberation
None of these scenarios could come to fruition
unless they are given time to mature and ripen.
I would make a number of specific recommendations:
a) The U.S. should
be extremely sensitive to the needs and perceptions of Pakistan.
Pakistani involvement in the coalition
would be invaluable. Pakistan should be granted maximum
opportunity to exercise its sovereignty.
At no time should we be seen to be giving ultimatums
to Pakistan or interfering in the country's
domestic affairs. Should we be allowed to establish
bases in Pakistan, we should do so at
the direction of the Pakistani government and religiously
abide by any and all conditions it may
set down. If it wants us to keep our troops away from
the general population, we should do so.
If they want us to do nothing to insult Islamic
sensibilities, we should do so.
We should state our willingness to discuss long-term policy
questions, such as our position regarding
Pakistani nuclear weapons, the lifting of sanctions,
and the creation of a permanent military
relationship, but should state our preference to put
off such serious discussions until after
military hostilities against Afghanistan are resolved.
b) We should express
a sincere willingness to work cooperatively with Iran. We should
not dwell on the past, but should make
it clear to Iran that our two countries face a common
enemy. It is now unclear as to what
role Iran could play in an eventual coalition, but as a
"frontline state", its cooperation could
be very important. We should recognize that Iran is
currently a player in Afghanistan and
a key supporter of the Northern Alliance. It has vested
interests in Afghanistan, namely that
a regime be established there that will provide freedom of
religion and full civil rights protection
to the Shia minority.
c) We should take
time to meet and talk with all the Afghan opponents of the Taliban
and make a sincere effort to enlist their
support. We should impress upon them that we have no
intention of conquering or occupying Afghanistan,
and that we have no vested interest in who
rules Afghanistan as long as they are
not Islamic extremists. We have no intention of
interfering in Afghanistan's domestic
affairs and do not have an anti-Islamic agenda. Afghan
tribal leaders and commanders expect cash
payments. This is part of doing business in
Afghanistan. We should be prepared
to honor such demands. Negotiations with the Afghans will
take time. The process moves very
slowly. Trust has to be built on a firm foundation. The
Pathans believe in personal relationships.
If a Pathan is convinced that you are his personal
friend, he will remain your friend for
life. They place little stock in impersonal
relationships and formal treaties and
documents. They do not view relationships based only on
cash payments or mutual convenience as
binding. They do not see cash payments as buying
loyalty. This is only earned through
a personal relationship. Many within Afghanistan are
totally unfamiliar with the United States
or the West. They will be skeptical until they see we
are sincere.
d) We should attempt
to limit our military involvement in Afghanistan to providing
assistance to regional forces, and commando
raids by special operations forces, if at all
possible. Once hostilities begin,
Usama bin Ladin may try to compel us to conventionally invade
Afghanistan by staging another spectacular
terrorist attack with high civilian casualties. He
would like to see lots of American troops
in a conventional invasion of Afghanistan, where the
U.S. could potentially suffer high casualties.
We should be aware of this strategy, and try to
prevent him from mounting such an attack
while hostilities are in progress. If he succeeds, it
would be prudent to refrain from acting
precipitously and needlessly endangering our forces in
an ill-advised military campaign.
e) India has signed
on to the coalition and will be eager to participate. India has
long called for an end to the Taliban
regime and would be delighted to see it go. India has
expressed no reservations regarding Pakistani
participation in the coalition. We need to
impress upon Pakistan that it must swallow
whatever reservations it may entertain about Indian
membership. We are now dealing with
changed circumstances. We face a common threat. We must
set-aside old animosities and work together.
We should express a willingness to play an active
role to help India and Pakistan address
their dispute after the current issue is resolved.
Should India and Pakistan have a positive
experience working together to face a common threat,
it could give them an impetus to resolve
their differences